The UK Met Office has released a report that 2015 and 2016 will break global record temperatures. The natural climate cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are reversing and will exacerbate man-made global warming, the study says . This will change the weather conditions around the world, increase the flow of warm air masses, but the UK and northern Europe may be reflected as a colder winter. "We will look back on this period as a major watershed," said Professor Adam Scaife, who led the study.
The record for the warmest year was broken in 2014, when heat waves dried out China, Russia, Australia and parts of South America. However, despite the increase in greenhouse gases that continue to warm the Earth, the relatively slow increase in temperature suggests a pause that has been observed in the last decade.
But the process of global warming has not stopped at all. On the contrary, natural climatic cycles have led to even more heat stored in the ocean. Now it has become clear that the pause in temperature rise is over and the global warming rate will increase rapidly in the coming years. This assumption is expressed before the November UN climate change summit in Paris, at which the leading countries should take a number of measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Professor Rowan Sutton, after reading the UK weather report, said: “No debate around the pause has changed our understanding of continued climate change from greenhouse gas emissions. This is the most fundamental theme for Paris."
The report analyzes the latest data on the key factors that collectively determine global warming. The main cause and the most powerful impact is carbon dioxide emissions, which continue to rise.
The El Niño effect is expected to be the strongest since 1998 and increase global temperatures, already dampening the Indian monsoon and the Atlantic hurricane season . Another natural ocean cycle, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, also appears to be shifting towards a warmer phase.
As Adam Skeyf states, “Many of these cycles can occur without human influence, but now they happen more due to human activity. So at the moment, for example, when El Niño comes and the global temperature rises, it's like icing the cake - an additional factor that creates a record year.
“These natural fluctuations will continue to be important and likely decisive in creating a record year, so they must be taken into account. But in terms of global temperature, they are less than the total warming we have already created,” Skaife said.
See also anekdotig:
- Article: " Global warming on Earth: statistics and results of 2014 ".